April 03, 2007

Occasionally I set my intuition in stone a year or more in advance, by way of testing its accuracy.


Hilary Clinton will win the Democrat primary.
Rudy Giuliani will win the Republican primary.

Giuliani will be the next president of the United States.

(Al Gore, learn from Colin Powell's example. A return to politics can only dilute your current potency of message. ... Although, words are much, but manner of living can erode them entirely.)

July/08 update:

For reasons I don't claim to understand, Giuliani chose not to campaign until Florida, and by then he had completely lost momentum. However, it bears noting that national security is one of the increasingly few issues on which Republican policy consistently beats Democratic policy at the straw polls: to the point where John McCain has had to modify his original anti-torture message.

What happened to Hillary Clinton's campaign is much more complex and much more brutal. It would have been a very different campaign had the measuring sticks been equal: but they were not, and I don't deal in what-ifs.
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